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Essay text:
This fallacy is committed when we assume, without
sufficient evidence, that A is the sole cause of B, when, in fact, there are several
causes of B. Here are two examples:
Violent crime has declined steadily in recent years. Obviously, tougher imprisonment
policies are working.
SAT scores have fallen sharply since the 1960s. Clearly, students are watching
too much TV.13
The first argument oversimplifies the situation by ignoring other causes that
have likely contributed to falling crimes rates (new policing strategies, changing
demographics, reduced use of crack cocaine, etc.). In the second argument,
the arguer correctly identifies one likely cause of declining SAT scores:
kids today watch too much TV...
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