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Essay text:
Thus, our
predictions about others' beliefs or behaviors, based on casual observation, are very likely
to err in the direction of our own beliefs or behavior. For example, college students who
preferred brown bread estimated that over 50% of all other college students preferred
brown bread, while white-bread eaters estimated more accurately that 37% showed brown
bread preference (Ross, Greene, & House, 1977). This is known as the false consensus
effect (Ross et al., 1977; Mullen, Atkins, Champion, Edwards, Hardy, Story, & Vanderlok,
1985). The false consensus effect provides the basis for the following demonstration, which
emphasizes the need for systematic rather than casual observation...
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