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His analysis of these interest rates focuses on the fact that as the Fed continues to increase its target for federal funds, the effects on short term and long term interest rates does not seem to be congruent with what is expected under the expectations theory. He refers to this as the term structure puzzle. Poole considers the expectations theory to try and solve this puzzle, and points out the fact that economic theory indicates that the a change in the bond rate should be linked to revisions in the future direction of the funds rate and not a to a change in the funds rate itself.
The underlying theory is that long term interest rates are in fact driven not by short term interest rates, but by new information about the current state of the economy...
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