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Although the payout ratio has long been of
importance to corporate finance researchers (e.g., Lintner 1956), it has been relatively neglected in the asset-pricing and prediction literature (see McManus, ap Gwilym, and Thomas 2004; ap Gwi¬lym, Seaton, and Thomas, forthcoming 2005)— despite market fascination with investment strategies based on dividends and earnings (e.g., the "Dow 10" strategy).' A&A redressed this omission in the literature by examining the aggregate payout ratio for U.S. stocks since 1871 and its relationship to subsequent 10-year real earnings growth. They found a positive coefficient on tbe payout ratio in a simple linear regression for a variety of sub periods and suggested that the low payout ratio of 2001 would lead to low earnings growth in the following decade...
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