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However, as one steps further back from the election, the predictive power is depleted. Income growth and approval readings taken early in the election year can barely predict readings of the same variables just prior to the election.
The findings reviewed show that approval is a stronger indicator, but also that as the electoral cycle evolves, the economy influences the Presidents standing which, in turn, reflects the verdict in the ensuing election in advance.
The findings show that presidential elections are basically unpredictable until early in the election year itself, but then preferences harden rather quickly...
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